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Toa Drop Chance Formula:
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The Toa Drop Chance Formula calculates the overall probability of obtaining at least one drop after multiple attempts in the Tombs of Amascut raid. It accounts for the cumulative probability across multiple attempts.
The calculator uses the formula:
Where:
Explanation: The formula calculates the probability of getting at least one success (drop) in k independent attempts, each with probability p.
Details: Understanding cumulative drop probabilities helps players estimate the number of attempts needed for desired items, plan their gameplay strategy, and set realistic expectations for rare drops.
Tips: Enter the drop probability per attempt (p) as a decimal between 0 and 1, and the number of attempts (k) as a positive integer. Both values must be valid (0 < p ≤ 1, k ≥ 1).
Q1: Why use this formula instead of simple multiplication?
A: This formula calculates the probability of getting at least one drop, which is different from the expected number of drops. Simple multiplication would give the expected value, not the probability.
Q2: Does this formula assume independent attempts?
A: Yes, the formula assumes each attempt is independent and the drop probability remains constant across all attempts.
Q3: How accurate is this calculation for rare drops?
A: The calculation is mathematically precise for the given assumptions. However, actual game mechanics may have additional factors not accounted for in this simple model.
Q4: Can I use this for multiple different drop chances?
A: This calculator is designed for a single drop type. For multiple different drops, you would need to calculate each separately or use more complex probability formulas.
Q5: What if I want to calculate the chance of getting exactly n drops?
A: For exactly n drops, you would need to use the binomial probability formula, which is different from this calculator's purpose.