Home
Back
Drop Probability Formula:
| From: | To: |
The OSRS ToA (Tombs of Amascut) drop probability formula calculates the cumulative chance of receiving at least one drop after multiple attempts. It's based on probability theory and is commonly used in gaming to understand drop rates over multiple attempts.
The calculator uses the probability formula:
Where:
Explanation: The formula calculates the probability of getting at least one successful drop by subtracting the probability of getting no drops from 1.
Details: Understanding cumulative drop probabilities helps players estimate how many attempts they might need to have a reasonable chance of receiving a desired item, which is valuable for resource planning and time management in the game.
Tips: Enter the drop probability per attempt (as a decimal between 0 and 1) and the number of attempts. All values must be valid (p between 0-1, k must be a positive integer).
Q1: What if I want to calculate the probability for multiple drops?
A: This formula calculates the probability of getting at least one drop. For multiple drops, you would need to use the binomial probability formula.
Q2: Does this account for dry streaks or bad luck mitigation?
A: No, this formula assumes independent attempts with a fixed probability. Some games implement mechanics that increase drop rates after many unsuccessful attempts.
Q3: How accurate is this calculation for OSRS?
A: This calculation is mathematically correct for independent events with fixed probabilities, which is how most OSRS drop mechanics work.
Q4: Can I use this for other probability calculations?
A: Yes, this formula works for any scenario where you want to calculate the cumulative probability of at least one success in multiple independent attempts.
Q5: What's a good target probability to aim for?
A: Many players consider 90% or higher as a good target, meaning you have a 90% chance of having received at least one drop by that number of attempts.